India to be among leaders in trade growth: DHL Trade Atlas 2025

Four countries are forecast to rank among the top 30 for both speed (growth rate) and scale (absolute amount) of trade growth between 2024 and 2029: India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines.

"India also stands out as the country with the third largest absolute amount of forecast trade growth (six percent of additional global trade), behind China (12 percent) and the United States (10 percent)," according to the DHL Trade Atlas 2025.

"The countries expected to deliver the most absolute trade growth are spread across Asia, Europe and North America. At the same time, the countries with the fastest projected trade growth also include several in Africa and Latin America."

Trade will continue at slower pace
Uncertainty looms over future trade policies following U.S. President Donald Trump's re-election last year but the report highlights how global trade growth has proven surprisingly resilient in the face of recent disruptions.

"This pattern is likely to continue even as the U.S. begins a campaign of tariff increases," according to the report by DHL and the New York University Stern School of Business.

The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the most important trends in global trade. "In the face of geopolitical tensions and concerns about widespread tariff increases, the report features data-backed insights, covering nearly 200 countries and territories.

"Recent forecasts predict goods trade will grow at a compound annual rate of 3.1 percent from 2024 to 2029. This roughly aligns with GDP growth, and represents modestly faster trade growth compared to the previous decade. Even if the new U.S. administration implements all of its proposed tariff increases and other countries retaliate, global trade is still expected to grow over the next five years but at a much slower pace."

John Pearson, CEO, DHL Express says: "The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 reveals highly encouraging insights. There is still significant potential for trade growth in advanced and emerging economies worldwide. It's impressive to see how international trade continues to withstand every conceivable challenge, from the 2008 financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic to tariffs and geopolitical conflicts. In today's global business landscape, DHL can assist customers in reevaluating their supply chains by establishing a balanced approach between cost and risk, ensuring they are both efficient and secure."

Made in China content finds new routes to the U.S.
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 provides an update on geopolitically driven shifts in trade patterns. "While trade between blocs of close allies of the U.S. and China declined in 2022 and 2023 relative to trade within these blocs, those declines were minor and did not continue in 2024.

"The U.S. and China have reduced their shares of trade with each other but not enough to constitute a meaningful decoupling. Direct U.S.–China trade has fallen from 3.5 percent of world trade in 2016 to 2.6 percent over the first nine months of 2024. However, the U.S. still brings in as high a share of its imports from China as the rest of the world does. Also, there is evidence suggesting that U.S. imports from China are underreported. Moreover, data that also considers Chinese inputs in goods the U.S. imports from other countries suggests no meaningful drop in U.S. reliance on goods made in China."

The report, commissioned by DHL, was authored by Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian and finalised in February 2025 using data and forecast updates through January 2025, the release added.