Boeing says carriers to need 2,800 freighters by 2041

Carriers will need 2,800 additional freighters overall including 940 new widebody models in addition to converted narrow-body and widebody freighters to support global supply chains and growing express networks., according to the Boeing Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) 2022-2041.

"Following a 10 percent decline in 2020, air cargo traffic bounced back strongly from the initial impact of the pandemic, posting an annual growth rate of 21 percent in 2021."

Boeing forecasts air cargo will increase at an average compound rate of 4.1 percent per year over two decades. "This is an increase over our 2021 forecast of 4 percent," says the update. Robust growth in East Asia, acceleration of global e-commerce and evolution of supply chains will be key drivers over the next 20 years, says Boeing.

"In addition, the pricing ratio between air cargo and maritime container ship cargo transport has decreased to historically low levels since early 2021, making the advantages that air cargo offers even more attractive."

Regionally, the Asia-Pacific market forecast points to the highest traffic growth as carriers continue to build out their express networks and supply chain support needs. "For the region as a whole, the total freighter fleet is forecast to become roughly the same size as the North American fleet by the end of the forecast period. This will represent growth of over three times the pre-pandemic fleet. In contrast, the more mature North American fleet is projected to grow by one third but it will need roughly as many deliveries as Asia-Pacific to efficiently and sustainably replace the existing fleet."

The CMO forecasts a market value of $7.2 trillion for new aeroplane deliveries with the global fleet increasing 80 percent through 2041 compared to 2019 pre-pandemic levels. The commercial services market to meet this demand is valued at $3.6 trillion, the report said.