India only country with positive trade outlook out of seven big economies: DHL’s AI

December 07, 2019: According to the AI-based prediction from ‘DHL Global Trade Barometer’, India is the only country with a positive trade outlook for the running quarter out of the world's seven largest economies.

Thanks to the strong maritime exports and Imports that will maintain India's trade growth over the three-month period ending in January 2020. The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an indicator of global trade developments calculated using artificial intelligence and big data, predict mildly positive growth for Indian trade with the country's Index rising five points to 54.

The positive outlook is driven primarily by an uptake in ocean imports of basic & industrial raw materials and chemicals & products, coupled with a gradual revival in air exports of consumer fashion goods. In total, ocean trade grew by 10 points, maintaining India's positive outlook even as air trade forecasts experience relative weakness.

Global Trade Barometer

Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade Barometer is an early indicator for the current state and future development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logistics data that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence. The indicator is published four times a year and the next release date is scheduled for the end of March 2020.

Out of all countries analysed in the DHL Global Trade Barometer, #India is the only country that regains a positive growth outlook. Here's why: https://t.co/png1mr8l1M #DHL_gtb pic.twitter.com/9ZOho1nh0E

— DHL Global Trade (@DHLGlobal) November 29, 2019

"India has the strongest trade forecast this quarter and the highest index value of all countries in the latest Global Trade Barometer survey, followed closely by the United Kingdom and Japan. This highlights the underlying potential of India's economy, which will benefit from the government's plan to invest US$1.39 trillion (€1.26 trillion) in infrastructure projects. The country's commitment to establishing itself as a strategic maritime hub with initiatives and investments in coastal infrastructure appear to be supporting the Index's positive ocean trade outlook and will likely also contribute positively to longer-term trade growth," said Niki Frank, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding India.

Negatively affects all countries, except India

The barometer results also suggest that world trade is expected to continue at a moderate pace but a further contract for the next three months, driven by minor decreases in both air and containerized ocean trade. Against previous quarters this year, the downward trend in trade growth remains mostly stable, neither indicating an acceleration of the decline nor a bottoming out of the contractionary movement. All seven nations monitored by the barometer received indexes below 50 points except for India, where the barometer forecasts moderate growth of five points to 54 points for India. While Japan and the UK had been the only countries with positive trade outlooks in the previous update in September, the two countries record the highest losses in this period.

Tim Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, said "According to the 'DHL Global Trade Barometer', the year will probably end with moderate world trade. However, we've to bear in mind where we come from: The rapid growth world trade has undergone in recent years was like climbing the Mount Everest. Now, we are on the descent, but we are still breathing altitude air. A countless number of stable trade relations continue to flourish worldwide, despite smouldering trade conflicts and geopolitical uncertainties."