Express parcel to account for 24-29bn shipments by FY2030: Redseer

The express parcel market is shifting from traditional couriers to e-commerce and hyperlocal shipments, driven by digital adoption, demographic shifts, and urbanisation.

The market is set for 24-29 billion by FY2030, growing at a CAGR of 19-23 percent from FY2024’s scale of 8-9 billion shipments, according to the latest report from Redseer.

Redseer's latest logistics report - Express Logistics in Motion: Market Update and Outlook - says e-commerce shipments will account for 4.8-5.5 billion shipments in FY2025. "They are projected to grow at a 23-24 percent CAGR from FY2024's scale of 4.4 billion shipments to reach 15-16 billion shipments by FY2030. The increasing variety of online shopping categories, deeper geographical penetration, and enhanced supply chain infrastructure are key enablers of this growth."

Traditional couriers will account for ~17 percent of the express parcel market in FY2025 (~two billion parcels) and is projected to grow at a CAGR of seven percent till FY2030. "This segment historically handled a significant volume of document shipments, including legal papers, business contracts, banking documents, and personal paperwork. The composition of this segment is switching towards non-document including e-commerce parcels as slow growth in document shipments have been observed due to e-governance policies and electronic documentation. While traditional courier players are expanding into servicing the e-commerce segment, at the same time, e-commerce players are also diversifying into documents express and the lines between the documents and e-commerce players is getting blurred."

Quick commerce emerged as the fastest-growing segment, contributing to 7-10 percent of the overall express parcel market in FY2024, the report added. "It is expected to expand at a CAGR of 33-50 percent from FY2024 to FY2030. It is driven by increased reliance on ultra-fast delivery models, expansion of dark stores and widespread expansion of the overall selection. Online food ordering, pharmacy deliveries and hyperlocal C2C shipments are expected to make up 13 percent of total shipments volume by FY2030 but with a slower overall growth rate vs quick commerce."

Mrigank Gutgutia, Partner, Redseer Strategy Consultants says: "India’s express logistics market is going through a major shift, driven by growing digital adoption and consumers becoming more comfortable with e-commerce. People now expect faster, more convenient deliveries, which is fuelling a surge in e-commerce and hyperlocal shipments while traditional parcels grow much more slowly. With express parcel volumes set to grow significantly between FY20-30 powered by the e-commerce surge, express logistics players need to realign their strategies to stay ahead and make the most of the fast growing eCommerce and hyperlocal opportunity landscape."